Florida vs. Texas prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators entered last week’s game with more internal belief and momentum than the program had experienced in quite some time. And then freshman quarterback DJ Lagway injured his hamstring with Florida leading the No. 2 team in the nation at halftime. The Gators ultimately dropped a second winnable game against a top-10 opponent, and they will now face their fifth such team this season when they visit the No. 5 Texas Longhorns on Saturday afternoon in Austin, Texas.

Florida and Texas will be squaring off on the gridiron for just the fourth time in history and first time in more than eight decades. The Gators and Longhorns finally meeting on the field was supposed to be an epic moment; instead, it comes with one team chasing respectability and the other seeking national championship glory.

Whether Florida will even be competitive Saturday with Lagway likely sidelined and redshirt freshman Aidan Warner starting remains to be seen. The Yale transfer has only practiced with first- and second-team players three times this season, and while he was thrust into an unenviable situation last week, his level of play was not what the Gators needed to be competitive against a top team.

Florida is 0-22 over the last century when entering a game as two-touchdown underdogs; UF is three-touchdown ‘dogs to UT in Austin given the visitors will be without at least eight starters in the game.

The Gators are also looking to buck recent trends that have seen them deflate over the second halves of seasons. Florida finished 2023 losing its final five games; Texas is the second of four straight ranked opponents UF will face before concluding the season against Florida State.

What will go down Saturday afternoon? Let’s find out.

Don’t miss our Florida Football Friday Final covering thoughts from Napier and where UF stands entering this game. Plus, take a look at the Gators deciding to retain Billy Napier through the offseason and why that decision may ultimately work out for Florida, even if it doesn’t seem like the right move now.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Questionable (3): QB DJ Lagway (hamstring), RB Montrell Johnson Jr. (lower body), CB Dijon Johnson
Out (7): OL Damieon George Jr., CB Devin Moore, WR Elijhah Badger, DB Asa Turner (knee), CB Ja’Keem Jackson, OL Devon Manuel
Out for season (6): WR Eugene Wilson III (hip), RB Treyaun Webb (leg), CB Jason Marshall Jr. (shoulder), QB Graham Mertz (knee), WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Off injured list (1): OL Roderick Kearney

Where to watch Florida vs. Georgia

Date: Saturday, Nov. 9 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Darrel K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium — Austin, Texas [100,119]

TV: ABC (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 374 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 0-2-1 all-time against Texas with the teams meeting for the first time in 84 years.
» The Gators defense has forced turnovers in seven of eights games this season with multiple takeaways in three straight contests for the first time under Napier.
» UF is 12-6 at home, 3-8 on the road and 0-4 in neutral-site games under Napier (3-12 away from home). Dating back to the prior regime, Florida is on a 3-18 drought away from The Swamp with a 3-13 mark in its last 16 true road games.
» The Gators under Napier are 9-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 14-2 when leading after the third quarter, 13-5 when leading at halftime and 12-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-13 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-11 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-18 when allowing 21+ points, 1-16 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 3-13 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-13 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-8 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-21 against ranked opponents (2-8 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 456 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +21 | O/U: 47.5

With Lagway playing, the Gators might have entered Austin with a third legitimate opportunity for an upset this season. Without him, it’s tough to see how Florida can keep its offense on the field long enough to give the defense enough breathers so they can regularly rush the passer and swarm to the ball with consistent energy. Warner will likely perform better than he did against Georgia, but if Texas stops the run or goes up multiple scores making Florida one-dimensional, the game is over from there.

Normally, any situation in which the Gators lose by three-plus touchdowns to an opponent would be embarrassing and deserving of scorn. Here are the facts: Florida enters this game missing at least eight starters including its top two quarterbacks, top two cornerbacks, two wide receivers and potentially two running backs. At some point, injuries that devastating are going to take a toll on a team.

It’s not the Gators’ fault they are facing their fifth program currently ranked among the top 10 nationally through nine games. The play here would be Texas to cover with the game going under the total if Lagway is on the sideline. If he is somehow able to suit up — Napier has insisted Lagway is a game-time decision — flipping both sides makes sense. No Florida game is actually playable (despite our strong prediction record this season), but this one in particular is not worth the risk.

2024 records: 4-3-1 ATS, 6-2 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets as the road team for the third and final time this season.