Florida vs. Norfolk State, 2025 NCAA Tournament preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, odds

Image Credit: Michael Nash

The pressure ratchets up for No. 4 Florida Gators basketball, which has turned in its top-five ranking to end the regular season for the No. 1 seed in the West Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Listed as the fourth top seed in the field, Florida faces the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans on Friday in a first-round game that will actually serve as a rematch from a meeting 13 years ago.

Head coach Todd Golden has the Gators’ eyes are firmly focused on the future, however, as a sixth Final Four appearance and fourth opportunity to play for a national championship are on the line over the next three-plus weeks.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an All-America first-team selection, leads Florida into Raleigh, North Carolina, fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 45.6 points per game.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon finds himself in the midst of a breakout campaign that has NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 11.2 points and 7.9 rebounds despite being mired in a mini slump during which he’s shot just 39% from the field, 17% from 3-point range and 62% from the free throw line over the last three games.

Making up for those shortcoming has been classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.4 points and 6.0 boards shooting 56% from the field, 67% from downtown and 82% from the charity stripe (18 of 22) over those same three games.

Not to be overlooked are 34-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.1 points, 6.5 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (8.0 points, 1.6 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 10 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces are in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. And March Madness awaits.

What will go down Friday evening as the Gators begin their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(16) Norfolk St. Spartans
Head coach	Todd Golden	Robert Jones
Record	30-4	24-10
Conference	SEC	MEAC

Injuries & absences

Doubtful: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Norfolk State

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | West Region | Round 1
Date: Friday, March 21 | Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Location: Lenovo Center — Raleigh, North Carolina [19,500]

TV: TNT (Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, Tracy Wolfson)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 201 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 1-0 all-time against Norfolk State, an 84-50 win in the second round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament.
» The Gators are 45-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 16-6 in the first round.
» UF last season snapped a streak of eight straight second round appearances by losing to Colorado in Round 1.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 10-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on both prior occasions (2007, 2014) and defeated No. 16 seeds by an average of 32.5 points.
» Florida is seeking its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014), fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07) and third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 8-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 14-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. has made a 3-pointer in 56 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton this week became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.

» Florida under Golden is 56-9 when leading at halftime (25-0 this season), 65-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (28-0), 51-10 when outrebounding an opponent (24-3), 41-15 when forcing ore turnovers (21-1), 48-8 when shotoing 45% or better from the field (21-2), 62-7 when outshooting an opponent (26-1), 22-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (9-0), 57-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (27-0), 42-15 when winning the bench scoring battle (18-1), 47-16 when four or more players score in dobule figures (21-2) and 24-3 when five or more players score in double figures (10-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -27.5 | O/U: 152.5

The Gators were a top-two team in the SEC — the strongest conference over a single season in college basketball history — and enter the NCAA as the hottest team in the nation. They are third nationally in scoring average (85.4 points) and fourth in scoring margin (16 points) while covering spreads in 26 of 34 games this season (76.5%). This is a massive line, of course, but Florida’s size and shooting ability gives it a realistic chance of scoring in the 90s and winning by 30+ points. The outstanding question is the point at which Golden will rest his best players and whether that will ultimately impact the final score.

Norfolk State can be “angry” all it wants about being a massive underdog; it should feel confident that it can compete with even the best teams in the nation given the program’s consistency in the MEAC and among HBCUs. However, UF beat both HBCUs it played this season by 24 points — at the beginning of the season before the Gators had figured out how to play together — and NSU has lost its NCAA Tournament games by an average of 37.6 points.

Playing a 1-16 game like this is ill-advised, but Florida and the over would be the leans.

2024-25 records: 0-0 ATS, 0-0 O/U

West Region bracket

(1) Florida vs. (16) Norfolk State
(8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma

(5) Memphis vs. (12) Colorado State
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Grand Canyon

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech vs. (11) UNC Wilmington

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53