Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, pick and preview: Where to watch, TV channel, odds, spread, time

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

Opportunity presents itself Saturday inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as the newly minted No. 21 Florida Gators host No. 4 Ole Miss in what should be a top-tier SEC showdown in a raucous environment. Florida has seen tremendous success recently against Ole Miss inside The Swamp, winning consecutive meetings, and it has a chance to pull ahead in the all-time series with a victory.

More important for the Gators, of course, is winning for the present. Off to one of the best offensive starts in program history — the best ever under a leader in his first season — Florida has a chance to prove that its early success under head coach Jon Sumrall and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is not opponent-dependent.

One week after going into a tough road environment and running all over Auburn’s vaunted defense (literally and figuratively), UF now must contend with one of the nation’s most prolific passers and playmakers in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Seen by many as the Heisman Trophy front-runner, Chambliss appears to make the impossible happen with the ball in his hands. However, it is unlikely that he has star running back Kewan Lacy by his side. Lacy, who has averaged 5 yards per carry with four touchdowns on only 39 carries, is listed as doubtful and not expected to play.

The Gators enter as the healthiest they have been after three weeks in what feels like forever. Senior wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. (ankle, questionable) is the only player on the injury report, but Sumrall indicated it is possible he suits up for the game.

Meanwhile, junior QB Aaron Philo is completing 73% of his passes with six touchdowns passing, two rushing and two interceptions (both entirely on his would-be pass catchers), and junior RB Jadan Baugh is the Heisman front-runner at his position, averaging an astonishing 8.5 yards per carry with eight touchdowns.

Sumrall is 0-3 against the Rebels (0-2 last season as he coached the bowl game), though all three meetings came with his Troy and Tulane teams entering as substantial underdogs. Many believe Florida should take a similar role entering Saturday’s game, but Las Vegas has the Gators favored by 3.5 points in what is one of the more unique lines in college football history (see below).

What will go down Saturday in The Swamp? Let’s take a closer look with this game day preview.

Florida vs. Ole Miss: Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Questionable (1): WR Eric Singleton Jr. (ankle, game-time decision)

Where to watch Florida vs. Ole Miss

Date: Saturday, Sept. 25 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ESPN (Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Katie George)
App: ESPN | SiriusXM: 132/230 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter | @Gators on Bluesky

Florida vs. Ole Miss game notes

» Florida is 13-13-1 all-time against Ole Miss but actually trails 5-6-1 in The Swamp. UF has won three of the last four meetings and not lost at home since 2008 (“The Promise”).
» The Gators have scored 162 points, the most ever for a coach through his first three games and most for the program from Weeks 1-3 since 2007, with a +99 differential, the second-most for a coach through his first three games.
» Florida has as many games of 50+ points scored in 2026 as it did from 2022-25 (two), and it has scored 40+ points in each of its first three games for the first time since 2007.
» Sumrall is the first coach to start his UF career 3-0 since 2015. He is 0-3 against Ole Miss, though those losses came as a severe underdog at Troy and Tulane.
» The defense has forced turnovers in 25 of the last 27 games across the last two seasons with multiple takeaways in 18 of those contests.
» Florida has allowed opponents to score 21+ points in 11 of the last 12 games dating back to the 2025 season.
» The Gators went 18-8 at home under the last regime, 70-24 (.745) in The Swamp since 2011 after going 36-5 (.878) under Urban Meyer from 2005-10.
» Sumrall went 24-3 (.889) at home as a head coach at Troy and Tulane; he is 2-0 at UF.
» Florida went 5-19 (.208) against ranked opponents under the last regime, 20-49 (.290) against such teams since 2011, after going 18-10 (.643) under Meyer from 2005-10.
» Sumrall went 1-7 (.125) against ranked opponents at Troy and Tulane, though his teams were underdogs in those games. Ole Miss is his first ranked opponent at UF.
» The Gators have scored in 476 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, analysis

Spread: Florida -3.5 | O/U: 58.5

The Gators enter much healthier than the Rebels with Singleton seemingly on track toward playing, which would mean no one on the injury report come kickoff. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has its star offensive playmaker listed as doubtful with nine players out for the game, including many on the defensive side of the ball against one of the nation’s top scoring teams. Still, considering a similar team made the College Football Playoff last season and just whipped LSU at home, it feels like this line is a reach.

So why is Florida favored? Primarily, the strength of its offense, home-field advantage, an expectation that it will play more disciplined football at home and a beleif that Ole Miss will be coming down after what might be the most emotional game of the entire 2026 season. All completely fair. That’s how the Gators, with their leaky defense, in Year 1 under a new coach, are just the fifth team ranked No. 21 or lower to be favored over a top-five opponent since 1978. (Note the line never budged off 3.5 all week, and the favorites went 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those prior games.)

Florida may well win on Saturday. Most of you reading this article certainly hope that will be the case. But giving a young team with a (to this point) poor defense and (long-term) discipline issues more than a field goal against a player like Chambliss and a proven team like Ole Miss creates too much of a margin for error. The Gators can still win while staying within the number and the score flying over.

2026 record: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear orange helmets with blue jerseys and white pants on Saturday night for the second of only three games this season, despite it being the Gators’ most traditional combination.