Florida vs. UConn, 2025 NCAA Tournament preview: Prediction, pick, where to watch, odds

Image Credit: Michael Nash

The pressure ratchets up for No. 4 Florida Gators basketball, which exchanged its top-five ranking to end the regular season for the No. 1 seed in the West Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Listed as the fourth overall seed in the field, Florida advanced past the No. 16-seed Norfolk State Spartans in the first round with a 2014 Final Four rematch against the No. 8-seed UConn Huskies awaiting Sunday.

Head coach Todd Golden has the Gators’ eyes are firmly focused advancing past the Huskies and into the Sweet 16. That’s just the tip of the iceberg, however, as a sixth Final Four appearance and fourth opportunity to play for a national championship are on the line over the next three-plus weeks.

Sunday marks a historic matchup as UF and UConn enter as just two of three teams — and the last two of those three — to win back-to-back national titles in the modern era. The Huskies are the two-time reigning champions having won the last two NCAA Tournaments consecutively (2023-24), while the Gators went back-to-back in 2006-07.

Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr., one of the nation’s top players as an unanimous All-America first-team selection, leads Florida into Raleigh, North Carolina, fronting a triumvirate of star backcourt standouts that have deftly alternated standing out as team leaders throughout the season. Guards senior Will Richard and redshirt senior Alijah Martin join Clayton as Florida’s three leading scorers combining to account for 45.6 points per game.

Sophomore forward Alex Condon finds himself in the midst of a breakout campaign that has NBA scouts frothing at the mouth about his potential at the next level. He is averaging 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds despite having recently escaped from a mini slump. Classmate and positionmate Thomas Haugh, who stands alongside Condon averaging 9.5 points and 5.9 boards, flipped roles in the first round finding his own shooting struggles.

Not to be overlooked are 35-game starting center sophomore Rueben Chinyelu (6.1 points, 6.5 rebounds), primary reserve junior G Denzel Aberdeen (8.0 points, 1.8 assists) and junior C Micah Handlogten, who has played the last 11 games after sitting out the prior 24 before unselfishly deciding that helping the Gators compete for a national championship was more important than preserving a season of collegiate eligibility.

The pieces remain in place for Florida. The Gator Boys remain hot. March Madness continues with a foe that has been a thorn in UF’s side over the last decade-plus.

What will go down Sunday afternoon as the Gators continue their sojourn in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

	(1) Florida Gators	(8) UConn Huskies
Head coach	Todd Golden	Dan Hurley
Record	31-4	24-10
Conference	SEC	Big East

Injuries & absences

Doubtful: F Sam Alexis (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. UConn

Game: 2025 NCAA Tournament | West Region | Round 2
Date: Sunday, March 23 | Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
Location: Lenovo Center — Raleigh, North Carolina [19,500]

TV: CBS (Ian Eagle, Bill Raftery, Grant Hill, Tracy Wolfson)
Live stream: March Madness Live | SiriusXM: 201 | Radio: TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 1-5 all-time against UConn winning the first meeting in the 1994 NCAA Tournament before losing five straight, including the 2014 Final Four and as recently as the 2022-23 season at home. The teams are 1-1 in March Madness.
» The Gators are 46-20 all-time in NCAA Tournament play, 17-6 in the first round and 10-6 in the second round.
» UF has advanced to the second round in nine of its last 10 March Madness appearances. It is looking to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017.
» The Gators are a No. 1 seed for the third time in program history holding a 11-1 record in NCAA Tournament play. They have advanced to the Final Four on both prior occasions (2007, 2014) and defeated No. 16 seeds by an average of 30.3 points.
» Florida is seeking its sixth Final Four appearance (1994, 2000, 2006-07, 2014), fourth national title game appearance (2000, 2006-07) and third national championship (2006-07) in program history.
» UF is rated No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency. It is one of two teams (Duke) rated among the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
» Florida won its first conference title since 2014 by capturing the 2025 SEC Tournament championship, its fifth in program history.
» The Gators in 2025 beat a No. 1 team outside of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and actually did so twice, once at home and once away.
» Florida is 8-2 this season against AP Top 25 opponents, 14-12 since Golden took over the program.
» Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. has made a 3-pointer in 57 consecutive games, a program record.
» Clayton this week became the first postseason All-America first-team selection (individual and unanimous) in program history.

» Florida under Golden is 57-9 when leading at halftime (26-0 this season), 66-5 when leading with 5 minutes left (29-0), 52-10 when outrebounding an opponent (25-3), 42-15 when forcing more turnovers (22-1), 49-8 when shooting 45% or better from the field (22-2), 63-7 when outshooting an opponent (27-1), 22-4 when shooting 40% or better from 3-point range (9-0), 58-8 when outshooting an opponent from 3-point range (28-0), 32-12 when shooting 75% or better from the line (14-0), 43-15 when winning the bench scoring battle (19-1), 48-16 when four or more players score in double figures (22-2) and 24-3 when five or more players score in double figures (10-0)

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida -9 | O/U: 150.5

This is a significant line for a second-round game against a team with a championship pedigree, but Florida has leveled up to its competition all season long winning three separate games against top-five opponents by 30, 9 and 22 points. In fact, the Gators have won 12 of their last 14 games by 9+ points despite facing some of the toughest teams in the nation.

UConn has been excellent down the stretch winning five of its last six, but it lost against two of the last three teams it faced that qualified for this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Huskies in the first round struggled to put away an Oklahoma team UF beat by 22 points last month, and ultimately, there will be too much offense to overcome even if there may be a legitimate battle on the boards.

Florida is 30 spots higher than UConn in both KenPom and Bart Torvik’s rankings. Golden will have used the final 24 minutes against Norfolk State as a teachable opportunity to get UF’s mind right against a significant step up in class from the opening round. Given the Huskies are 80th in adjusted defensive efficiency, there’s a solid chance the Gators cover with the game going over the total — but UF must watch out for an immensely efficient blocking team in the post.

2024-25 records: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U

West Region bracket

(1) Florida 95, (16) Norfolk State 69
(8) UConn 67, (9) Oklahoma 59

(12) Colorado State 78, (5) Memphis 70
(4) Maryland 81, (13) Grand Canyon 49

(11) Drake 67, (6) Missouri 57
(3) Texas Tech 82, (14) UNC Wilmington 72 || (3) Texas Tech 77, (11) Drake 64

(10) Arkansas 79, (7) Kansas 72 || (10) Arkansas 75, (2) St. John’s 66
(2) St. John’s 83, (15) Omaha 53