Florida vs. Auburn: Game pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream

By Adam Silverstein
October 5, 2019
Florida vs. Auburn: Game pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream
Football

Image Credit: Michael Nash

The first top-10 matchup to hit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 2012 is also the renewal of an old SEC rivalry as the No. 10 Florida Gators and No. 7 Auburn Tigers square off on Saturday afternoon in The Swamp. Both undefeated with stellar seasons to this point, the Gators and Tigers have an opportunity to make a major statement with a victory, though a loss may not hurt either program too much considering how stacked their schedules look over the duration of the season.

Auburn enters the game as the only team in the nation with a pair of top-25 victories, and both happened to come in road games. Florida has not yet played a ranked opponent this season, though the Gators are 4-1 against ranked teams under head coach Dan Mullen.

Florida is not only wearing throwback uniforms and celebrating homecoming, it is attempting to truly get back in the national conversation in Year 2 under Dan Mullen. What will go down as the Gators continue their three-game homestand at Florida Field? Let’s find out with plenty of information, notes, analysis and a game prediction as the Florida-Auburn rivalry renews.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 5 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [Capacity: 88,548]

TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jamie Erdahl)
Live stream: CBSSports.com | SiriusXM: 78/191 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

No. 10 Florida GatorsNo. 7 Auburn Tigers
Head coachDan MullenGus Malzahn
Record5-0 (2-0)5-0 (2-0)
ConferenceSECSEC

Injuries and absences

Probable (6): CB C.J. Henderson (ankle), DE Jabari Zuniga (ankle), DB Shawn Davis (undisclosed), WR Freddie Swain (undisclosed), DB Jeawon Taylor (undisclosed), LB Ventrell Miller (undisclosed)
Out (2): ATH Kadarius Toney (shoulder), DT Elijah Conliffe (undisclosed)
Out for season (3): QB Feleipe Franks (ankle), CB C.J. McWilliams (Achilles), LB David Reese (Achilles)

Game notes

» Auburn leads the all-time series 43-38-2 against Florida, though the Gators hold a 23-9 mark in The Swamp. AU has won three straight and four of the last five against UF dating back to 2001.
» The Gators and Tigers are playing for the first time since 2011 and first time in Gainesville since 2007. If the current SEC schedule holds, Auburn will not return to Florida Field until 2031.
» Florida is 67-26-2 all-time in its homecoming games, including 25-5 since 1989 but just 4-5 this decade.
» UF is 12-5 in top-10 matchups in The Swamp. It has won seven of its last nine games against top 10 teams on Florida Field.
» Florida has begun a season 5-0 for the first time since 2015.
» The Gators have won nine straight games for the first time since 2011-12 and done so by a combined 315-83.
» Florida is outscoring opponents 105-17 in the second half this season.
» The Gators lead the FBS in interceptions (nine) and are second in sacks (24).
» Florida is 4-1 against ranked opponents under Mullen, beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012.
» UF is looking for its first back-to-back 10-win seasons in a decade (2008-09).
» Under Mullen, the Gators are 10-0 when scoring first, 12-0 when leading after the third quarter, 11-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 5-0 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 12-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Florida has scored 24+ points in nine straight games for the first time since doing so in 24 consecutive contests from 2007-09.
» UF has scored in 390 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +3.5 | O/U: 38.5

Florida will be up against a tough Auburn team on Saturday night, one that matches up quite well with the Gators’ inconsistencies. The Tigers’ defensive line has been tremendous this season and could be in for a big day against a unit heavily criticized by Mullen over the last two weeks. Offensively, Malzahn’s creativity could give a stout Florida defense fits, especially with a number of talented players trying to gain their footing while being back in action for the first time in multiple weeks. Still, how will a true freshman quarterback in Bo Nix look against one of the best secondaries in the country?

Of real concern for the Gators is their inability to get yardage on ground, which is a key to a Mullen game plan in a showdown such as this. He will also get creative with a trick play or two, but Auburn has proven to be tough and sound at least to this point. Special teams is not as much of an advantage for Florida as it used to be, which reduces the edge in the third phase of the game. In other words, this one is going to be close.

So what direction does one go when picking this game? The Swamp is clearly a major advantage for Florida, and we have seen that factor heavily into massive wins for the Gators over the years. But while Auburn has been tested and has two wins over ranked opponents already this season, Florida has not faced any opponent of this caliber, and it struggled in its only two games against competent Power Five competition (Miami, Kentucky). The Swamp will be crazy, and with the spread including the hook, it is worth leaning Florida with the game going over the meager total. Nix should have a tough time against this secondary (1st FBS, nine interceptions) and ferocious pass rush (T2-FBS, 24 sacks)

2019 records: ATS picks 1-3-1 | O/U picks 3-1

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear 1960s throwback uniforms including white helmets featuring an old block “F,” blue jerseys, white pants and black shoes. Take a look!
» This is the first time Florida is hosting ESPN’s “College GameDay” program since Oct. 20, 2012. The Gators will be making their 40th appearance on “College GameDay,” the third-most ever behind only Alabama and Ohio State. Florida is 25-14 in its prior 29 appearances.
» Former Florida golf star Billy Horschel will serve as the honorary Mr. Two-Bits.
» Emmitt Smith, Fred Taylor and dozens of other former Gators will be in attendance at the game.
» Leonard George and Willie Jackson Sr., the first African-American football players in program history, will serve as honorary captains for the game.

2 Comments

  1. SWFL Joe says:

    I don’t like how our OLine has played so far. Auburn wins big and exposes how little the players really strained this summer and just how far we are from being elite. Gus gives everybody left on the schedule a blueprint on how to beat the Gators. Defense speads way to much time on field because offense can’t get it in gear and tires out. Gators put Jones in 4th quarter and he leads them to a late TD starting a QB controversy next week. Tigers 38 Gators 10. Hope Im wrong

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