Florida at LSU: Game pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream

By Adam Silverstein
October 12, 2019
Florida at LSU: Game pick, prediction, odds, line, spread, time, TV, watch live stream
Football

Image Credit: Michael Nash

In what is quickly becoming one of the best rivalries in modern college football, the No. 7 Florida Gators invade Tiger Stadium on Saturday night in an attempt to topple the No. 5 LSU Tigers in one of the sport’s toughest environments. There’s no rest for the weary as UF will be playing consecutive games against top-10 opponents for the first time since 2011 and will have three such games over its next four contests through the end of the month.

After utilizing a raucous homefield advantage to dispatch Auburn last week, Florida will be tasked with overcoming those same odds in Death Valley. LSU thrives at home and especially in night games, so there should be no question that UF has long odds on Saturday night — and not just the two touchdowns the Tigers are favored by entering the game.

Still, the Gators are 4-1 against ranked opponents under head coach Dan Mullen, who is also 4-1 as an underdog at Florida. His team is coming off a feel-good home victory and should be able to use that momentum into this game, but if the Gators face adversity early, will they be able to fight through it. As one of the best second-half and fourth-quarter teams in the nation, Florida will have every chance to truly assert itself as a national title contender … if it can escape Death Valley.

What will go down as the Gators look for another massive win? Let’s find out with plenty of information, notes, analysis and a game prediction as the Florida-LSU rivalry renews.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 12 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium — Baton Rouge, Louisiana [Capacity: 102,321]

TV: ESPN (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Maria Taylor, Tom Rinaldi)
Live stream: WatchESPN.com | SiriusXM: 98/207 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Tale of the tape

No. 7 Florida GatorsNo. 5 LSU Tigers
Head coachDan MullenEd Orgeron
Record6-0 (3-0)5-0 (1-0)
ConferenceSECSEC

Injuries and absences

Probable (2): QB Kyle Trask (knee), DE Jabari Zuniga (ankle)
Questionable (1): RB Dameon Pierce (head)
Out (2): ATH Kadarius Toney (shoulder), DT Elijah Conliffe (leg)
Out for season (3): QB Feleipe Franks (ankle), CB C.J. McWilliams (Achilles), LB David Reese (Achilles)

Game notes

» Florida is 33-29-3 all-time against LSU with wins in two of the last three meetings. The Tigers lead the series 17-16 in Death Valley with wins in three of their last four home games. LSU has won 10 of the 19 meetings this century, six of nine this decade and four of the last six overall.
» The Gators are 15-6 in games between top-10 opponents since 2002 and 5-2 since 2012. UF is looking to beat a pair of top-10 opponents in the same season for the first time since 2012, and it is playing such opponents in consecutive games for the first time since 2011.
» Florida has begun a season 6-0 for the first time since 2015. LSU ended that undefeated start in Tiger Stadium.
» The Gators have won 10 straight games for the first time since 2011-12 and done so by a combined 339-96.
» Florida is outscoring opponents 112-17 in the second half and 64-7 in the fourth quarter this season.
» The Gators lead the FBS in interceptions (12) and are fifth in sacks per game (4.33).
» Florida is 4-1 against ranked opponents under Mullen (3-1 against top 10 teams), beating three ranked teams in a single season in 2018 for the first time since 2012.
» UF is looking for its first back-to-back 10-win seasons in a decade (2008-09).
» Under Mullen, the Gators are 11-0 when scoring first, 13-0 when leading after the third quarter, 12-0 when allowing 20 points or fewer, 5-0 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 13-0 when outrushing their opponent.
» Mullen is 4-1 against the spread as an underdog at UF.
» Florida has scored 24+ points in 10 straight games for the first time since doing so in 24 consecutive contests from 2007-09.
» UF has scored in 391 consecutive games, an NCAA record.
» Florida is one of only two FBS teams (Alabama) that has not lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record dating back to the 2008 season.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +14 | O/U: 55.5

The spread in this game may seem unreasonable to some, but one must remember what the betting public has seen from Florida in the only two games that had national attention this season: a ton of turnovers, sloppy quarterback play and bend-but-don’t-break defense. Then consider what it has seen from LSU: electric offense, a Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback and dominating defense. Add into the mix that redshirt junior quarterback Kyle Trask is hobbled with a sprained MCL, and it is fair for the Gators to come into this game as a severe underdog. That does not mean you need to side with the Tigers.

The only side of this game to pick is Florida, which has seemingly given its worst possible look to the national audience in its two big games … yet still won both of them. The Gators being 6-0 with two pressure-filled victories and a come-from-behind win on the road is a legitimate resume. That’s not to say LSU has not been tested. The 45-38 win over Texas was a thriller, but let’s not act like the Longhorns defense compares to the one the Tigers will face on Saturday night.

The biggest advantage LSU has on Saturday night is Death Valley itself, and it will absolutely affect the game and likely lead to a victory for the home team. Still, Florida should put up points in this game, and LSU will be going up against the toughest defense it has faced all season. While QB Joe Burrow has been lighting up sub-par secondaries, just like with Auburn’s Bo Nix last week, he has not seen a defense that leads the nation in interceptions (12) and sits fifth in sacks (26). If the Tigers can jump out to a big lead, they will roll the Gators as playing catch up in Death Valley is almost impossible. But as long as Florida keeps it close early and wears down the crowd, it will have a chance to not only cover but win with a score falling under the total.

2019 records: ATS picks 2-3-1 | O/U picks 4-2

Odds and ends

» Florida will wear blue jerseys with blue pants and orange helmets.
» The Gators will be making their 41th appearance on “College GameDay,” their third this season and second straight. UF has made the third-most appearances on the show behind only Alabama and Ohio State. Florida is 26-14 in its prior 40 such games.

One Comment

  1. Gator1 says:

    I think one thing to consider is that so far LSU has not really been tested (1 sec win) and they have at least played Texas and won, but gave up 38 points, so this could point to some problems about their Defense. Gator D is quite good and the other thing to factor in is Gators play hard (or harder) in the 3rd and especially 4th Qtr, so if LSU gets tired and game is close in the 3rd or 4th Qtr this may lean against LSU. LSU did get embarrassed by the Gators in the last Game, so they will be out for some revenge and they do have a great QB (unlike Auburn’s QB who was exposed and why it showed he was a true freshman). Mullen will likely not get out coached in this game, so expect a few fun trick plays, or at least expect Mullen to adjust as well as possible by halftime (maybe sooner). Yeah if LSU runs the score up before the half, then maybe the betting odds of almost 2xTD is realistic, but I think this could be a great game to bet on and win $ on, even if you don’t pick the Gators to win. At the end of the Day, the Gators would rather beat GA than LSU if they could win only 1 of these matchups, so this game is important, but not a death sentence for their season in any way (imagine they lose to LSU, then beat GA and go to SEC champ game and beat AL).

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