Florida vs. Georgia: Prediction, pick, odds, spread, football game time, watch live stream, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Graphic by Michael Nash

The pageantry that makes college football special will be on full display Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville, Florida, as the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs meet for the 100th time in rivalry history. This showdown comes with added stakes for both programs as No. 1 Georgia aims to remain undefeated and firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt, while Florida looks for a signature win in Year 1 under new head coach Billy Napier.

If the Gators aim to accomplish that goal, they will have to do it as the greatest underdogs in series history. The Dawgs are favored by 23.5 points entering Saturday’s tilt, 1.5 points more than their average margin of victory across their last four series wins (over the last five seasons). Despite the intensity, this rivalry has not been close as of late no matter which team has won with only one single-digit victory since 2013.

Beyond Napier, who meets Kirby Smart — a friend, former co-worker and Georgia’s head coach — for the first time on the gridiron, Saturday marks an important moment for Florida sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson. One year ago, Richardson made his first career start in this game, and it was one he absolutely wants to forget; Richardson threw for just 82 yards with two interceptions and a fumble during a second-quarter stretch that completely gave the game away.

With more than a handful of starts now under his belt and a number of occasions this season in which he has flashed the potential Gator Nation hopes to see more consistently, Richardson has an opportunity to prove his doubters wrong and erase the memory of last year’s horrendous performance. Given the way he has played in certain key moments this season — such as on the road against Tennessee — and the fact that the off week likely provided his body with some much-needed rest, perhaps this is a breakout opportunity for the second-year signal caller.

If there was ever a time for the Gators to pick up a signature win this season under Napier, it’s this one. What will go down Saturday when the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party kicks off? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Probable (1): RG O’Cyrus Torrence (lower body)
Questionable (1): LB Lloyd Summerall III (upper body)
Out (4): TE Arlis Boardingham (shoulder), CB Devin Moore (lower body), LB Diwun Black (lower body), TE Nick Elksnis (upper body)

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 29 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, Florida [76,666]

TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell)
Live stream: CBSSports.com | SiriusXM: 137/190 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Georgia holds a 53-44-2 edge all-time against Florida, though the Gators are 22-10 in the last 22 meetings since 1990. The teams are 8-8 in the last 16 games with the Dawgs 47-41-1 all-time with the teams playing in Jacksonville.
» This makes Saturday’s game the 100th all-time meeting in the rivalry and the 90th such game in Jacksonville.
» UGA has won four of the last five and seven of the last 11 in the series with an average margin of victory of 22 points.
» Saturday marks the second time since 1942 that Georgia enters the game as the nation’s No. 1 team (2021). It also marks the largest spread in rivalry history at 23.5 points favoring the Dawgs.
» An unranked Florida team has defeated a ranked (and top 10) Georgia team twice this century (2002, 2014).
» The Gators have scored 24+ points in eight of its last 13 games.
» Florida is 4-0 this season when rushing for 150+ yards.
» The Gators are 7-12 against ranked opponents (2-4 vs. top five teams, 5-7 vs. top 10 teams) and 30-9 against unranked opponents since 2018. They are 1-2 against AP Top 25 teams this season.
» Florida was the only team in the nation to play three top-20 opponents in the first four weeks of the season. Georgia is the fifth team it has faced that has been ranked this season.
» UF is one of two FBS teams nationally (Alabama) that has not yet lost to an opponent that finished the season with a losing record since 2004.
» The Gators have scored in 430 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +23.5 | O/U: 56.5

While this may be the largest spread in series history, it is actually not outrageous. Georgia has beaten Florida by an average of 22 points across its last four victories in the series, and this game has only seen a single-digit margin of victory once since 2013. Still, while the Gators have struggled defensively this season, it’s not like the Bulldogs have been world-beaters. Yes, UGA has won its last two games by a combined 97-10, but in its prior two games, it barely survived in a four-point win over Missouri and had to come back to beat Kent State by 17 points.

Florida has been up and down all season, but the Gators have not lost a game by more than 10 points, and they nearly beat Tennessee on the road in a 38-33 defeat. This spread and total indicates an expected score of 40-17. Just last year, with a far better team, the Dawgs won 34-7, but 21 of those points came during a 2-minute swing in the second quarter as Richardson completely imploded in his first career start. Despite his struggles, that’s unlikely to happen again.

Richardson has been hobbled all season, and the bye week may have him at the healthiest he’s been since Week 1. Florida will attempt to run as much as possible (it’s averaging an SEC-best 6.4 yards per carry) as it looks to control the clock and keep its porous defense off the field. The game will not be low-scoring given UF’s horrendous defense, but the offense should do enough to keep the Gators within the number.

2022 records: ATS picks 1-6 | O/U picks 4-3

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets for the second of three times this season. The Gators will wear the look again next week at Texas A&M.