Florida vs. Tennessee prediction, pick, preview: Where to watch, TV channel, game time, odds, spread

Football

0

Image Credit: Michael Nash

The Florida Gators reach the midway point of their season with a new lease on life. Win on Saturday at the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers and there is no telling what is possible over the remainder of the campaign. Lose on Saturday and it’s much of the same for a Florida team that occasionally flashes but consistently fails to live up to expectations.

The environment will be as difficult as possible Saturday night at Neyland Stadium where the Gators enter as two-touchdown underdogs to a team they have flatly dominated over the last 20, 30 and 50 years … whichever period of time floats your boat. The Vols have not exactly met their own expectations at this early juncture, but this showdown is where they similarly hope to reverse course and kick off a potential run to the College Football Playoff.

Florida remains short handed with 10 players, including a few starters, listed as “out” for the game; however, it has added some reinforcements to its active roster. Sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson III redshirt senior defensive tackle Joey Slackman and redshirt junior left tackle Austin Barber have all been cleared to play. (Tennessee only has three players out, none of them key starters.)

The Gators will continue alternating quarterbacks with redshirt senior Graham Mertz set to start and freshman DJ Lagway getting snaps early in each half before Napier decides on a rotation over the duration of the contest. The rotation has worked well in Florida’s last two wins, but this week, it goes up against the nation’s second-ranked total defense and fourth-ranked scoring defense.

The Vols have allowed just 9.4 points per game this season, though their offensive competition has been lackluster. The best offense they faced (Arkansas) handed them their lone loss, while the second-best offense (Florida) visits Knoxville, Tennessee, on Saturday.

Saturday will be the latest inflection point for head coach Billy Napier and the program. With a victory, Florida can look at 5-2 as a possibility entering the second off week with the entire season in front of it. With a loss, there may be some tough decisions to make entering that same week.

This marks the latest in a season that Florida and Tennessee were originally scheduled to play each other since 1991. The game has historically been contested in mid-September with the only later meetings coming in 2001 and 2020 due to 9/11 and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively.

What will go down Saturday night? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries & absences

Active (5): WR Eugene Wilson III (knee), DL Joey Slackman (knee), OL Austin Barber, DB Bryce Thornton, DB DJ Douglas
Out (8): S Asa Turner (knee), CB Ja’Keem Jackson, RB Treyaun Webb, TE Tony Livingston, WR Marcus Burke, WR TJ Abrams, RB KD Daniels, OL Devon Manuel
Out for season (2): WR Kahleil Jackson (knee), DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Where to watch Florida vs. Tennessee

Date: Saturday, Oct. 12 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Neyland Stadium — Knoxville, Tennessee [101,915]

TV: ESPN (Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, Kris Budden)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 390 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 32-21 all-time against Tennessee winning six of the last seven meetings, 18 of 20 since 2005, 26 of 32 since 1993 and 31 of 39 since 1976. UF is also 14-13 all-time in Knoxville.
» The Gators have won consecutive games against FBS / Power Four opponents after going nearly a year without one. Florida has allowed 24+ points in eight of nine games against such teams.
» UF is 11-6 at home, 3-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 13-2 when leading after the third quarter, 12-3 when leading at halftime and 11-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-11 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-9 when scoring less than 21 points, 5-16 when allowing 21+ points, 1-14 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 3-11 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-11 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-6 over the last two seasons. That drought extends to 8-19 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 40-13 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 453 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +14.5 | O/U: 56.5

This is an enormous spread for a Tennessee team averaging 19.5 points over its last two games. (UT actually entered the week as a 16.5-point favorite, its largest spread in this series across half a century.) That said, Florida does match up similarly to Oklahoma, which Tennessee beat by 10 points on the road. The Gators have been one of the nation’s most difficult teams to predict on a weekly basis under Napier. Sometimes they level up to competition; sometimes they do not. They can just as easily compete and cover on the road as they fall short and get routed at home. That makes handicapping this game immensely difficult.

Florida has a bottom-third defense in the Power Four at this juncture. The only such team Tennessee beat by this margin was NC State, which has the second-worst such defense among teams in those conferences. The Gators are going to let up some big plays and will absolutely lose this game, but it should be competitive. This margin has been covered in four of the last six meetings — all by UF. If the Vols were to cover, it would be their biggest win in the series since 1992.

Tennessee will need to make its hay by running the football, which should milk the clock. Florida is going to struggle to maintain possession given its issues carrying the rock; that will limit scoring chances. Look for the Gators to cover with the game sliding under the total.

2024 records: 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U

Odds & ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear traditional white jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets for the first of three times this season.