Florida vs. LSU prediction, pick, odds, spread, how to watch live stream, game time, TV channel

Football

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Image Credit: Michael Nash

The collective back of the Florida Gators is against the wall. Stuck at five wins with the hope of bowl eligibility fading into the background with each passing week, Florida is in danger of ending a season on a losing streak for the second straight campaign under head coach Billy Napier.

The Gators’ failures of a year ago started with a shocking upset; they lost three straight — two against top 16 teams — to conclude the 2022 season. Florida enters Saturday coming off a shocking upset; all three of its remaining games this season are against top 19 opponents, including two on the road.

In what might be the penultimate meeting of the Gators and LSU Tigers as annual rivals, Florida badly needs the win. As does LSU, which is seeking to bounce back from a loss at Alabama against its toughest remaining opponent; the Tigers should coast in their final two games of the season.

There is also the coaching storyline to consider. Napier, who previously led Louisiana, had to be bothered that LSU barely gave him a look as its next coach. There were certainly plenty of fans in the Bayou that wanted him to lead their team. Now, he returns to a Louisiana field for the first time since taking the Florida job with plenty of pressure on his shoulders.

A win for the Gators inside Death Valley at night would ease a lot of tension. What will go down Saturday night? Let’s find out.

Take a look at the updated Gators depth chart, which includes some notable changes on defense.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Active: (1): WR Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman (lower body)
Probable (2): DL Tyreak Sapp (upper body), DL Cam Jackson (upper body)
Out (4): WR Caleb Douglas (leg), TE Keon Zipperer (lower body), OL Caden Jones (foot), TE Jonathan Odom (upper body)
Out for season (4): LB Shemar James (knee), LB Jack Pyburn (knee), DL Justus Boone (knee), RB Cam Carroll (knee)

Starting quarterback Jayden Daniels (concussion) will be active for LSU, though starting running back Logan Diggs — the second-leading rusher behind Daniels — will miss the game.

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Nov. 10 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium — Baton Rouge, Louisiana [102,321]

TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Cole Cubelic, Alyssa Lang)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 382 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida and LSU are 33-33-3 all-time against one another, but while the Gators are 20-15 in the series since 1988, the Tigers have won four straight overall and six of the last seven in Death Valley.
» UF is 2-8 away from home under Napier and on a 2-14 drought dating back to the last regime.
» Florida is 2-10 in its last 12 true road games.
» The Gators started the season with 35 new scholarship players on the roster, tied for 12th most in the FBS. They also had just 115 combined starts returning, second-fewest in the nation, and only 69 returning players, ninth-fewest in the nation.
» Florida has scored on 33 straight red zone trips (25 touchdowns). It enters the game ranked ninth nationally in conversation rate (.944).
» The Gators under Napier are 10-1 when leading after the third quarter (losing last week) and 9-2 when rushing for at least 150 yards. They are now 4-1 this season when scoring first, 5-0 when leading at halftime and 4-0 when outrushing their opponent. However, UF is 3-7 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-6 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-11 when allowing 21+ points, 1-10 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-8 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-7 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-2 this season. That drought extends to 8-15 against ranked opponents (2-6 vs. top five teams, 5-9 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 37-12 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 445 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +15.5 | O/U: 67.5

Florida’s four-game losing streak in this rivalry has come by a margin of just 8.5 points per game, but we’ve already seen how the Gators play against Daniels: poorly. LSU’s star eviscerated UF last season completing 23 of 32 passes for 349 yards passing with 44 yards rushing and six total touchdowns. The result was a 10-point Florida loss at home. Daniels has only improved over the last year, and while it looked like the Gators made some strides defensively, we’ve seen that come undone down the stretch.

Florida has allowed 40.3 points per game over the last three contests, and LSU has the nation’s No. 1 offense. That should tell you everything you need to know about who is going to win this game. The questions come along the margins. Even though the Gators may lose this game by multiple scores, Georgia has been the only team the last two years to consistently have Florida’s number in what could be considered “dominant” victories. This is too many points, so UF covering is the move. The total sounds right-on, but we’ll lean over given LSU has barely been able to stop anyone this season.

2023 records: ATS picks 3-6 | O/U picks 5-4 | Underdog SU picks 1-0

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, blue pants and orange helmets for the second time this season. (Fun fact: UF will not wear orange jerseys or pants at all this season.)